MMG NFL Spread Picks Week 4: Follow the trends, Mahomes v Brady Chef’s Kiss

As much as I loved the beginning of Week 2, I loved the end of NFL Week 3. The Sunday night game was a battle of top 5 defenses who deserve better QB play; the Monday night game was fun because we saw what a healthy and able Saquon could do as well as a motivated Cee Dee Lamb could do.

Betting wise…We hope you didn’t take out any 401K dollars and put it on the Chiefs and Bills moneyline parlays. Don’t worry; they are still two of the best five teams in the league, and usually, we will be on the right side of that bet.

A quick review of our betting trends. Something had to give with the Titans/Raiders…It ended in a 2-point game, as Vegas predicted. Kliff Kingsbury wishes he was Sean McVay in more ways than one.

McVay is 10-1 against the Cardinals. The Rams are fine, and we feel as though they will be a good bet moving forward. Cooper Rush, our dear friend Greg Waddell’s HS friend and potential sports soulmate, is 2-0 in starts, and the Cowboys have now covered nine of their last 11 games against the New York Football Giants.

Andy Reid will be in the Hall of Fame as a coach one day. No doubt about it. He wins often, but when he loses…Some of the ways he loses are unimaginable losses. Frank Reich even gets surprised by these losses.

If you missed out on MMG’s NFL Newsletter, check out Larry’s newsletter detailing all the games of Week 3.

Week 4 Betting Notes and Trends

• The Raiders have won the last four meetings, five of the last six, while going 5-1 against the spread against the Broncos. Who knows with these very mid HCs outside of knowing that Denver’s defense is ELITE! The under feels good here as the under is 5-0 the last five when the Raiders are the host.
• The MVP battle between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson puts us in a tough situation as the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games. Baltimore is riding a 7-1 cover streak as regular-season underdogs.
• I can’t believe I’m doing this by suggesting this on the public airwaves… However, the Lions are on a 14-6 cover streak and 5-0 over-run. The Lions can score points and Geno Smith is not good. The Lions are going to win, and they are going to cover.
• The Browns…are a good football team…Yes. Yes, they are! Atlanta is not a great home-field advantage. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS and 0-5 SU as a home underdog under Arthur Smith. The Browns are 7-3-1 ATS against the NFC South in road games since 2000. Nick Chubb has a bit of experience running the football against the Falcons.
• The numbers tell us the Cowboys against NFC East opponents is an easy bet. Since 2018, the Cowboys are 10-2 ATS and 11-1 when playing at home against division opponents. They are -3 against the Commanders.

MMG NFL Week 4 Picks  

Host of MMG NFL Daily Picks and the baseball encyclopedia of props. 

Season Record (10-7-1)

Game 1: Vikings -2.5

Game 2: COWBOYS -3

Game 3: TEXANS +5.5

Game 4: PANTHERS-1.5

Game 5: BUCS +1

Game 6: Rams +1.5

MMG Managing Editor, Co-Host of Break Break the Bank Podcast

Season Record (7-11)

Game 1: Bills -3

Game 2: EAGLES -6.5

Game 3: Titans +3

Game 4: GIANTS -3

Game 5: Chiefs -1

Game 6: Rams +1.5

Co-Host of Chaos and Conversation Podcast, President of the Ja Morant Fan Club

Season Record (6-11)

Game 1: Eagles -6.5

Game 2: Chargers -5.5

Game 3: Browns -1.5

Game 4: Chiefs -1

Game 5: BRONCOS +2.5

Game 6: Rams +1.5

 

Co-Host of Break Break the Bank Podcast, The Honduran Betting Expert, and Mr. Count My Money and get my Jordans.

Season Record (10-8)

Game 1: Vikings -2.5

Game 2: Chargers -5.5

Game 3: Bears +3

Game 4: PACKERS -9.5

Game 5: RAIDERS -2.5

Game 6: Rams +1.5

Co-Founder of MMG, Co-Host of Chaos and Conversation Podcast, MMG College Football Writer: Picks, Bets, and Brews

Season Record (9-9)

Game 1: Vikings -2.5

Game 2: LIONS -4

Game 3: GIANTS -3

Game 4: STEELERS -3

Game 5: PACKERS -9.5

Game 6: Rams +1.5

Check the Betting video below for those who may need a refresher and bet responsibly. 

Betting 101